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EUROMOD - Tax-benefit microsimulation model for the European Union

The personal income tax in Portugal: from the sovereign debt crisis to the inflationary shock

Abstract

The personal income tax (PIT) is a crucial source of government revenue and a key tool for implementing income redistribution policies. This study uses the EUROMOD microsimulation model along with data from the EU-SILC survey to examine the evolution of PIT between 2009 and 2024. This timeframe encompasses the sovereign debt crisis, the subsequent recovery, and the recent inflationary shock. In response to the debt crisis, PIT was substantially increased, followed by a period of gradual reversal and the introduction of additional tax relief measures. The findings reveal that the average effective PIT rate stands at 13.3% in 2024, 4.3 p.p. higher than in 2009. Despite efforts to reduce the tax burden, the rise in the average tax rate during the debt crisis was not fully offset in the post-crisis recovery. This was largely due to robust income growth, which was not mirrored by adjustments in tax parameters, diminishing the overall impact of tax relief policies. Additionally, the study highlights that the redistributive capacity of the tax has increased between 2009 and 2024, primarily due to the rise of the average tax rate.